Geollect feature in gCaptain providing empirical narrative to combat growing misinformation and fake news about developments around Ukraine and Russia.
Is The US Ready For War With Russia?
Biden has sent 3,000 troops to Poland which is less than one percent the number of troops Russia has on the Ukraine border. Bosphorus Naval News claims that no US or large NATO warships have entered the Black Sea this year and, according to the maritime intelligence experts at Geollect, there are currently zero US-flagged ships of any type (including sealift ships) transmitting their AIS position in the Black Sea.
The US Army and Marines do have assets prepositioned for war but there is no indication they have been sent to the Black Sea. “Originally the Marine Corps, through the Navy’s Military Sealift Command, maintained three squadrons of ships which could each offload and support a 16,000-person Marine Expeditionary Brigade anywhere in the world for thirty days,” says maritime historian Sal Mercogliano. “In 2012, Squadron One in the Mediterranean was dissolved, and its assets rolled into the other two squadrons or added to the strategic sealift fleet. These ships could be sent to Europe but would require prolonged transits from their bases at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean or the western Pacific.”
In short, moving large forces from the continental United States would require the use of government-owned ships held in reserve. Without these ships – and no amphibious warships, aircraft carriers, submarines, or surface ships in the Black Sea – it’s highly unlikely the US could fight any battle against Russia in Ukraine.
And it’s not just Mediterranean US Army and Marine supply ships that have been cut from the defense budget, but patrols of the Black Sea itself.
According to Stars and Stripes magazine, the U.S. Navy has shouldered most of the burden for patrolling the Black Sea. The number of days its warships spend annually in the strategic waterway mostly has fallen since 2014, when Kremlin forces seized Crimea from Ukraine.
“It is frustrating to see wavering allied presence in the Black Sea,” said Adm. James G. Foggo III (US Navy Retired), Dean of the Center for Maritime Strategy, at the US Navy League. “The inconsistency (of Clack Sea patrols) is driven by competing security priorities among allies, a lack of available ships and resources, and the failure of NATO to devise and implement a strategy in the Black Sea.”
According to the Bosphorus Naval News the last United States Navy warship – USS Arleigh Burke – left the region on December 15th, the French Navy left the day prior, and the UK’s Royal Navy hasn’t been in the Black Sea since last summer.
Biden said that if Russia attacks the Ukrain the “United States together with our allies and partners will respond decisively.” By counting ships, however, it’s clear that a decisive military response is not a legitimate option (at least not in the short term).
Who can tell us the risk of war.
It is shocking that Wall Street moved so sharply on the promises of a world leader with a history of lying to the press but also shocking is the fact that markets did not move at all when Russian warships entered the Black Sea.
War requires expertise and logistics. If you want tradable information we suggest you ignore what the politicians are telling CNBC and instead follow logistical experts you trust. Experts like @man_integrated. Then follow the experts in “move really big sh!t”. Experts @gCaptain @mercoglianos @loriannlarocco @FreightWaves and then go follow those experts who have real experience in military expeditions. Experts like Admiral @stavridisj and the teams at geollect @cimsec and @USNINews
These are the people who count ships and will let you know when/if the United States or NATO allies start moving lots of heavy equipment.